Who Will Win in 2014 AP Assembly Elections?
After the stupenduous success in by-elections (held in June 2012), everyone is expecting that YSR Congress Party led by Jagan, Vijayamma will win the AP Assembly General Elections to be held in 2014. But in politics anything can happen. TDP might come in to power or Congress might retain its power.
Congress party (presently ruling party in AP and at the center also) is losing its grip over the state and is frequently visiting Delhi in order to keep up their posts. Everyday when we go through newspapers, we find that Congress leaders (both party leaders and government ministers, MLAs) are making trips to Delhi in order to give reports, or to discuss, or to find solutions for crisis, or for any other reasons. It is giving wrong impression on the public that they are giving more importance to consult Delhi Bosses rather than solving public problems. So, there are less chances that Congress party will win in this elections. Ofcourse, anything may happen in Politics. Earlier, media opinioned that congress will not come to power in 2009 itself. But people voted for Congress. In the same way, there are chances for Congress to win again. But now, there will be some sort of confusion regarding CM candidate. Few might say it is Kiran Kumar Reddy or few might say it is Chiranjeevi, or few others might even come up with other names.
Coming to Telugu Desam Party, already many people are thinking that TDP (Telugu Desam Party) party has become weak in the state and that there are less chances to get in to power in 2014. People are looking at 2012 by elections and are saying that TDP will not come back to power. But we can’t get to that decision, because of following factors:
- TDP is the only alternative to Congress and YSRCP
- People got vexed with corruptions & scams, now they are looking for better government (many feel that TDP government was not as worst as present government in case of scams and corruption, relatively)
- Few people feel that YSRCP is an off shoot of Congress, so whenever there is a need, both YSRCP and Congress might get in to coalition or YSRCP might get merged in to Congress. So, only TDP will remain as alternative.
- By-elections are not a solid test for public opinion. It is because of the reason that TRS has won seats only where they have grip (they won in those constituencies previously) and only where is there is Telangana Sentiment. Also, Jagan’s party has contested in the areas where they have confidence (that means, the candidates who won previously on Congress party ticket might have confidence that they can win on Jagan’s party ticket, based on the people’s opinion in those constituencies). If at all, for suppose, if a TDP MLA resigns and contests in by-elections for that constituency, there will be more chances that the same TDP MLA will win (unless there is some strong reason on other side). So, there is no wonder in the success of YSRCP party candidates in limited constitutes. Winning in the general elections will be a solid test for any party. So let us wait till 2014 to know who wins in AP Assembly General elections.
- Few people think that TDP is having poor condition, with respect to number of MLAs and their party strength. But it should be noted that any party will (mostly) be in the same condition before coming back to power. Remember the condition of Congress party before they won in 2004 AP General elections (only YSR and his Padayatra were plus points, and the party strength was not as good as its counterparts).
- Entry of Balakrishna in to direct politics (expected) and utilization of services of Jr. NTR, Lokesh, Brahmini (expected), Harikrishna, etc for party development and promotion.
- But TDP has to sweat out this time to get in to power. Earlier in 2009 elections, Lok Satta and Praja Rajyam party have split votes of TDP (expectation). Now it has a threat in the form of YSRCP. So, TDP needs to work more hard in order to capitalize on the votes of people (who have negativity on present government).
Now let us analyze the chances of YSR Congress Party. I didn’t expect the arrest of Jagan before by-elections in 2012. But CBI has arrested Jagan before by-elections which has created sympathy among public (of course, all people are not sympathetic towards this issue). After the failure of Congress (though winning 2 seats) and TDP in by-elections, everyone has analyzed and sent reports to their high-command, and discussed in party meetings, that the sympathy wave created due to Jagan’s arrest could be the reason for winning of YSR Congress party. I don’t think so. People might not consider this kind arrest for sympathy (since Jagan has not been arrested on positive reasons -as like freedom fighters or something).
Congress and TDP are attributing their failure to the sympathy wave in the public. I think they can’t tell in public that the image of YSR Congress party is big hence they won. They want some reason to tell. They want to tell that, only due to sympathy wave Jagan won, otherwise they could have lost the elections. They also want to tell that sympathy wave doesn’t work in 2014 elections and hence YSR Congress party won’t win. I think this is a good way to hinder ones’ failure and to lower the impact of oppositions’ winning. Ok, that doesn’t matter in this discussion.
YSRCP has chance to win in 2014 elections, since they have got good cadre, strong network right from the party workers, More number of leaders from other parties are expected to jump in to YSRCP and hence there are more chances of winning.
2014 AP Assembly elections are very much important for Congress (because they want more number of MPs from AP in order to make Rahul Gandhi as PM, if all things fall in right place), also important for TDP (in order to prove its presence in the state, in order to survive, in order to block the comments that the party is setting off) and are also important for YSRCP (in order to prove the innocence of Jagan, in order to prove that their decision of floating a new party is right, in order to know that they are really trusted by public, in order to come out of cases easily, in order to protect their assets, and in order to prove that Congress won in 2009 elections because of YSR charishma and not because of other reasons).
FINALLY, it is all in the hands of voters of Andhra Pradesh. We don’t know what will be their ultimate judgement. In this political field, any thing may happen at any time. Miracles happen within no time. Unexpected happens to the shock of everyone. There are equal chances for Congress, TDP and YSRCP to win in 2012 AP Assembly elections. So, let us wait till 2014 elections to know the pulse of public.